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The Allowance for Loan Loss analytical calculator (ALL) was developed for the Farm Credit Bank of Texas. ALL is an asset resolution program that utilizes AgriLogic’s econometric models to determine the loan loss allowance for 38 regional loan pools covering Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. Loan Loss Allowance represents each portfolio’s allowance for bad debt. AgriLogic developed the basic ALL system to comply with the professional standards of the Farm Financial Standards Committee (FFSC), a national committee charged with suggesting uniform financial records. FFSC recommends numerous measures, including the following financial measures and definitions: desirable ranges and guidelines vary substantially by type of farm, ownership pattern, time of year, and technology. Trends on each farm can identify management strengths and weaknesses. These measures fit into the following categories: Liquidity, Solvency, Profitability, Repayment Capacity, and Financial Efficiency. AgriLogic developed an econometric model to forecast the all of the FFSC measures to determine the value of each of the 38 regional loan pools’ overall asset portfolios and allowance for loan loss. The quarterly allowance for loan loss percentages is determined based upon each pool’s individual composite (e.g., commodity prices, livestock prices, unemployment rate, land values, etc.). For each pool, running 24 to 48 econometric scenarios results in a set of outputs. The outputs are used to determine the effects on the pools. Depending on the strength of each driver (i.e., each composite) within each pool and its forecast from the econometric model, new risk drivers are determined. For instance, if cotton prices are forecasted to decrease for the coming quarter, all pools with cotton drivers will be increased, due to the greater risk associated with the decrease in prices. Each quarter, AgriLogic provides not only the new risk drivers for each pool, but also a detailed description of the reasons why the drivers have increased or decreased. This information is used to manage the portfolio. The methodology for the ALL project proceeded as follows:
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